Last month, we learned how end-of-month selloffs tend to give NYMEX prices a bit of a bump in the last week of the month. Needless to say, there was precious little sign of it this month.

We never said this was going to be easy. At this point, I’d usually say something along the lines of “which is why you need Cost Containment Intl.”…but I figure you already know that by now.

The bitterly cold weather across the country finally trumped the economy, as natural gas storage levels fell more than expected for the first time this year. We’re talking 2% above predictions, but bucking a trend is bucking a trend.

We’ve had a number of people ask us why the NYMEX price is so much lower than their current rates, and how they can get the NYMEX price. In the interest of full disclosure, we’ll reveal how to get the NYMEX natural gas price next week. Stay tuned.

Check the NYMEX

You know those annoying TV ads where some fast-talking pitchman is selling you some amazing product, but you have to PICK UP THE PHONE!!! and ACT NOW!!!!….don’t you just hate them?

Well…PICK UP THE PHONE!!! ACT NOW!!!

Sorry, but for the first time, I understand how those pitch guys feel. Planet NYMEX has given us a little gift, and I’d sure like to help you enjoy it.

I just got done saving a customer 22% in 2009 over their 2008 bill. Yesterday, February went off the board at $.4476/therm. In the weeks to come I’ll explain exactly how to understand the economic ramifications of this outcome. Right now, what it means is: we haven’t seen prices this low in many years. Right now, what it means is we’re positioned to give you the budget stability that energy savings of 20-25% in 2009 can bring you.

So…ACT NOW!!! phone calls, e-mails, text messages, faxes, smoke signals, passenger pigeons and paper airplanes are all acceptable forms of contact.

Okay, I’m going back to your regularly scheduled Kathie now. And for you folks who have already called me, boy, did you time it right!

You have all heard me refer to the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange). This week we will begin discussions on “Life on the Planet NYMEX”.

Why do we call the NYMEX a Planet? A planet has it’s own identity. It spins and changes direction often, creating it’s own eco-system/atmosphere. It relies on the universe but appears to be completely independent. We have seen the NYMEX react to changes in oil supply, the economy, the weather and apparently alien forces, which create volatility as well as surprises…unpleasant and otherwise.

Last year at this time we had the same amount of gas in national storage as we do now. Supply is strong. Not even sustained cold weather has been able to produce a rally, so prices should stay in this narrow range for while longer…maybe. Most of the people in the natural gas industry aren’t like you; they want prices to go up, and they’re working to make that happen. Production in the gulf has been cut because demand is down, and wellers are shutting down their marginal or unprofitable wells. Checked your local gas station lately? Prices WILL rise again. I really want you all to be sitting back and watching the show when that happens.

Check the NYMEX

…to keep it short this week.

The optimism radiating from Washington DC did nothing to improve the mood of the markets, which responded as they traditionally have for a new Democratic president. NYMEX natural gas prices were also unmoved, instead responding to continued low demand by seeking lower prices.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the new mood in Washington spreads to the business community. Much of the current crisis in the economy is actually a crisis of confidence: people are afraid to lend, afraid to spend, afraid to risk. Most agree that the solution lies in people diving back into old-fashioned business as usual, yet no one seems willing to be first one in the pool. Hopefully, “yes, we can” is an idea that will spread.

Meanwhile, yes, we can get you the best price, find you the best savings, and introduce you to the greener future our new president spoke about.

Check the NYMEX

Take a look at this week’s storage report. While a net withdrawal of 94 Bcf may seem like a lot, it’s well below what was expected for a week of blistering cold across the country. The storage report lately has been all give and no take.

We’ve talked a lot in the past weeks about interpreting what you read in the NYMEX numbers, and how uncertain this has become, even for the experts. But the weekly storage report numbers are actually pretty easy to read, because speculation has nothing to do with them. They’re a straightforward indication of how much natural gas is actually being used. Compare it with the prevailing temperatures, allow a bit of play for supply estimates, and you’ve got a clear indication of where demand is. From there, it’s a pretty simple step to guessing what it says about the current state of the economy.

Sleep. wake. repeat.

The markets have been putting on a very strange show for the past few months. Case in point: the past two weeks. A week of steady growth has given way to a week of steady drops across most markets, resulting in the NYMEX natural gas price dropping below $5.00 for the first time in two years.

What this means to you. There seems to be a general unwillingness to face the reality of the current economy, a real desire to believe that a new administration, a new bailout plan, a new package is going to make the problem go away. This optimism lasts for a while, floats the markets for a bit, then dissolves. After a while, it picks up again.

And it feels very much like the people and businesses following this cycle are waiting for others to act, rather than acting themselves.

There is, however, another story being told. People are stepping up in ways they hadn’t before. Laid off workers are starting new businesses. Companies are digging for new ways to succeed. And Cost Containment Intl. customers are finally starting to listen to us about energy conservation and energy management.

If this is what it takes to make people grab for the savings that have been right at their fingertips all this time, then some good has come from bad times. People are starting to request the audits and ask for the options they passed over before, even back in July when prices where more than twice as high as today.

Check the NYMEX

Greetings! I understand some of you are warmer than others today. We’ll warm up with a look at the terminology used to describe the many ways natural gas can hide from us in the ground, making it so hard for us to know how much is still down there. Let’s begin.

Natural gas Resource Base – This is the broadest classification of Natural gas estimates. According to the EIA (Energy Information Administration.) The Total Natural Gas Resource base includes the estimate for the entire volume of natural gas that is (or was) trapped in the earth before extraction.

We can break this down by where it is, whether or not we know it’s there, and whether or not we can get at it. Different people use different breakdowns.

Where it is:

Conventional Natural Nas – Natural gas that exists in the earth and is trapped in a “reservoir.” This is the setting we’re most familiar with, and the resource estimate with which we have the most confidence.

Unconventional Natural Gas – This natural gas assumes another form or is present in a peculiar formation that makes its extraction different from conventional approaches. Most of our estimated resource is in forms that are technically non-recoverable using current or foreseeable technology.

Whether we know it’s there:

Discovered Recoverable Resources – Reservoirs that geologists have actually located through exploration. These include current production, all past production, and the known gas that is remaining to be produced. When we speak of our “reserve,” this is what we refer to. We know it’s there, and we know how to get it.

Undiscovered Resources – Deposits that have not been pinpointed, but are generally expected to exist based on geologic conditions. The US Department of the Interior and the US Geological Survey (USGS) are responsible for estimating how much undiscovered recoverable natural gas there is in onshore areas and state governed offshore areas of the US, and the Minerals Management Service (MMS) is responsible for estimating the undiscovered natural gas in Federal offshore areas

How we’ll get it:

Recoverable Resources – The technology exists to make its extraction possible.

Non-Recoverable Resources – There is a great deal of natural gas located in very low concentrations throughout the earth’s crust and the technology does not exist, nor is it expected to come about in the near future, to effectively extract this gas.

Since every resource estimate is an “educated guess,” there are constant revisions being made. New technology, combined with increased knowledge of particular areas and reservoirs, mean that these estimates are in a constant state of flux.

Here is the bottom line: even though there are many different people using different definitions and terminology, most agree that there is at least as much technically recoverable natural gas remaining to be found in the earth as already been located to date. In other words, we haven’t peaked yet. The question for next week: Is Natural gas renewable, or essentially irreplaceable? Remember that the formation of natural gas takes thousands and possibly millions of years. However, technology has come a long way since 1859, when the first well for natural gas reached down just 69 feet below the surface of the earth. Do you remember who did it? Check last week’s newsletter.

Check the NYMEX