The Weekly Storage Report gave NYMEX a cold, hard slap in the face to end a year that has been made up of many cold, hard, slaps in the face. The withdrawal was well below expectations, leaving NYMEX set to end the year around $5.50.

It’s common to end the year with Top 10 lists, and a “Top 10 Things We Learned In 2009″ list would seem like a good idea, but in compiling the evidence we’ve only been able to come up with a Top 2 list. So here are the Top 2 Things We Learned In 2009:

1. If you try to time the market, you’ll probably lose.
2. Everyone is still trying to time the market, anyway.

Which is going to make 2010 very interesting, indeed. Perhaps we can reach a Top 10 list of things we WILL learn in 2010:

1. We know that domestic resources, and international resources, are at levels previously thought unimagineable due to new drilling techniques.We’ll start learning in 2010 whether the environmental impact of these techniques will affect their long-term prospects.
2. We’ll learn whether demand will pick up due to economic recovery at home. Right now, we have no idea.
3. We’ll learn the same thing for international demand. Again, at this point, pure speculation.
4. Well learn whether natural gas’s role as an energy source will change dramatically in the near future.
5. We’ll learn whether long term contracts and growing price stability are the future of natural gas.
6. We’ll learn whether the natural gas industry is really going to change from a rag-tag collection of rugged individualists to a wholly owned subsidiary of Big Oil.
7. We’ll learn whether there is any stomache at all in Washington to curb the role of speculation on the energy market.
8. We’ll learn whether NYMEX learned anything in the past year…although we probably already know the answer to that one.

So there you have it: put them together and you’ve got a Top 10 list.

Needless to say, at Cost Containment Intl., we’re thinking of your energy future looking forward into 2010 and well beyond. Let’s see what we can learn together.

Funny how certain phrases take on new meanings given the time and the place.

We’ll start by wishing a Merry Christmas, as well as a Happy Holidays, to all who read today’s post.

The Weekly Storage Report Giveth, the Weekly Storage Report Taketh Away. There’s not a lot of Christmas cheer at NYMEX right now, as today’s storage report of a less-than-predicted withdrawal put a damper on hopes to bring prices above the $6.00 mark.

Last week’s record withdrawal had expectations high, especially given the continuing cold weather, and last week’s rapid rise in response created a bit of a buyer’s rush. Today has put a bit of a damper on the rush. We could be seeing a return to the days when NYMEX ping-pongs each week based on the report.

There are those who think last week’s euphoria over the withdrawal was premature. Of course people are turning up the heat in response to the cold weather…heat’s cheap this year. Much of what’s being burned right now is natural gas that was purchased back during the bargain-basement days. It should surprise no one that there will be some substantial withdrawals when the weather goes south, because this year, even with the state of the economy, people can afford to turn the thermostat up to the comfort zone. It’s a luxury everyone can afford.

So we’ll look closely to see what happens to the report following temperate weeks. It’s possible that one horse open sleighs won’t be the only things dashing through the snow for the next couple of weeks. We’ll keep you posted.

The weekly storage report caught everyone by surprise this morning…the biggest withdrawal ever for this time of year, at 207 Bcf. After weeks of the report nudging along close to predicted levels, this makes two straight weeks of withdrawals that were well above expectations, with plenty of frigid weather in the mix looking to next week.

On NYMEX, the party continues. Looks like we’ll end the day above $5.80. Could we hit six by the New Year? Looks like a distinct possibility. Last time we were looking at six, it was on the way down.

You’ll remember that a while back we talked about the growing interest in natural gas among the major oil companies. This week that interest turned into action: Exxon/Mobil announced plans to buy XTO Energy, one of the largest independent natural gas producers in the country. The big boys are starting to make their play.

The story of the year for natural gas in 2009 is that all the old rules are changing. And a future where natural gas production is controlled by a few big players, rather than the rag-tag collection of independents that now run the show, points towards the biggest potential change of all. Big oil will mean that natural gas gets a real voice in government, which it currently lacks, and will probably help push natural gas as the “bridge fuel” of America’s future. Big oil will also mean a greater push towards price stability….large producers will be better able to weather the ups and downs of natural gas demand without the hair-trigger response of the current, highly competitive market.

Big oil also makes it far less likely that we’ll see the bottoming-out of this past fall again.

In the meantime, stay warm.

The weekly storage report came in with a larger than expected withdrawal, and NYMEX is throwing itself a bit of a party at the moment.

In other words, the market is following fundamentals. Stop the presses.

People were waiting for a clear sign from the storage report, and it appears they think they’ve finally gotten it, especially given that the current week has thrown the first real cold weather of the season into the mix, raising expectations that next week’s report will follow suit. Prices are currently heading towards the mid-$5.00 range.

Several things have been cleared from the table looking through the rest of the season. Even though spot prices are still low in comparison to futures prices…the gap widened a few weeks back, as you may recall…it’s now pretty certain that gas buyers aren’t socking away gas for future sale at a rate that can fully counter the Wintertime rise in demand. It’s now pretty certain that the storage overflow is not going to happen. It’s pretty certain that there isn’t going to be a price crash heading into 2010.

What happens when Winter turns to Spring? No one’s really thinking about that at the moment. Right now, NYMEX is in a place that’s making a lot of people happy. You’re probably not one of them.

You wouldn’t think that 2 Bcf of natural gas is all that big a deal, but today it was. That’s how much got injected, according to this week’s storage report.

Pretty much everyone was expecting some kind of withdrawal.

NYMEX, which did a brief runup in the week we were off leading up to and through the Thanksgiving weekend, continues its gradual, if muted, move downward.

It grows increasingly unlikely that the much-anticipated overload point for our national storage system is going to be reached, but each week from now on with injections, or minimal withdrawals, is going to make the current storage surplus larger and larger in comparison to the 5-year average.

There’s a lot of play going on in the NYMEX natural gas market at the moment, and as has been the case for much of the past year, very little of it has to do with supply and demand. Short holders…speculators who are betting on a price drop within the next month or two…still outnumber long holders by about a 3-to-2 margin. And while all indications point to a real drop sometime soon, NYMEX continues to putter along within a fairly limited range of prices. The longer this goes on, the more they lose their nerve, take their lumps, and get out. These little selloffs tend to run the price up…after which it gradually settles down again…and that’s pretty much been the picture at NYMEX for the past few weeks. You could call it stability, or you could call it NYMEX chasing its own tail.

Whatever you call it, most eyes are still looking to the future for signs, because the signs we have at present are inconclusive. And NYMEX continues to hold a fairly steady line.

Meanwhile, the first shipment of LNG from Qatar pulled into port recently….that’s right, we’re still importing natural gas. There’s hardly anywhere to put it, but a contract is a contract. There’s just an awful lot of natural gas floating around out there at the moment. And a lot of people are starting to think that the NYMEX we’re seeing now may, like the Energizer Bunny, just keep going and going and going.